RANTAU PANJANG (Malaysia) A bloody separatist conflict in southern Thailand that pits Malay Muslims against the Thai majority is stirring concerns in Malaysia and has the potential to inflame tensions with Bangkok.

Analysts say fears the insurgency may become a magnet for Al Qaeda-linked militants seeking to widen the conflict have so far proved unfounded.

A more immediate risk is that more Malaysians may be motivated to take up the cause, which would have implications for Malaysia's internal security and cross-border relations.

“Malaysians can still control their feelings and understand that it is not right to get involved. But if this continues to drag on, then we cannot predict what will happen,” said Fatah Harun, member of parliament for Rantau Panjang in Kelantan state.

Kelantan is one of four predominantly Malay Muslim states bordering the restive southern Thai provinces. Kelantan and much of southern Thailand was once an independent Malay sultanate, before Buddhist Thailand annexed most of it last century.

The decades-old separatist conflict that has killed 3,600 since it flared into violence in 2004 remains a local phenomenon at the moment, conducted by shadowy groups with few outside links.

Malays, angered by what they see as an ethnically driven counter-insurgency that is policed by 30,000 Thai troops, worry that any upsurge in violence could send refugees fleeing to Malaysia across the porous border that divides the two countries.

Malaysians fear their relatives in Thailand will be caught in the crossfire between Thai security forces and the insurgents.

“We may not be affected, but we have relatives across the border who are being oppressed by Thai authorities and live in fear of being shot,” said Abdul Karim Ilyas, an attendant at a car park in Rantau Panjang.

More than half of the victims in the insurgency have been Muslims, fuelling fears of extra-judicial killings by security forces. The rest are Buddhist police, soldiers and teachers targeted with car bombs and drive-by shootings. Malaysians on the border fear their kin and co-religionists will be forcibly assimilated by Buddhist Thailand.

“This is about the survival of Muslims in southern Thailand, because if Bangkok ever fully takes over the provinces economically and politically, then the Malays will be dispersed,” said Sayuti Omar, a Kelantan-based political writer.

Such views are rarely voiced publicly in Malaysia due to the traditionally close ties between the two countries, both of whom officially endorse a policy of boosting education, employment and entrepreneurship adopted in 2007 to address Malay grievances.

But it has not always been smooth going. Ties between Malaysia and Thailand hit a rocky patch in 2005 when Thailand accused Malaysia of harbouring insurgents among 131 Thai Malay Muslims who had fled across the border seeking protection.

Jemaah Islamiah coming in?

The long-running insurgency has had very limited impact on investment and foreign perceptions of Thailand, as it is in regions well away from Thailand's industrial and tourist centres.

Experts say the insurgents are focused on winning separation from Thailand and have shown no desire to join a global jihad.

But turning the conflict into a battle between Buddhists and Muslims could attract outside groups, experts said.

Australian counter-terrorism expert David Kilcullen, who has advised US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, says a key strategy of Al Qaeda and its affiliates is to insinuate themselves into local conflicts, even if local groups are initially opposed.

“Awareness of the likelihood that a trans-national terrorist presence could provoke a large-scale western intervention seems to have deterred insurgents from accepting such a presence,” Kilcullen wrote in his book “The Accidental Guerrilla”.

Riduan Isamuddin (Hambali), then acting chief of Jemaah Islamiah and Al Qaeda's man in Southeast Asia, was captured in August 2003 in Thailand, where he was accused of plotting a bomb attack on an Asia-Pacific summit later that year in Bangkok.

He remains in detention in Guantanamo and no evidence has emerged that he ever colluded with Thai separatists.

Malaysian border officials believe it is extremely unlikely that outsiders will come to control the conflict.

“Many different and badly splintered local groups are believed to be committing the violence at present, which is now mainly motivated by vendettas and revenge attacks,” Fatah said.

“It is not possible for Jemaah Islamiah to infiltrate and unify these groups,” he added.The border is demarcated by difficult-to-police jungles and rivers that provide an opening for smuggling by insurgents.

Rowing boats across the Golok river that separates Rantau Panjang and Thailand, people among the local communities on both sides of the border stay in touch without the hassle of getting passports stamped at the border checkpoint.

Those who do use border checkpoints hold Thai and Malaysian passports, making it hard to ascertain their true identities and some have fled Thailand refuge from the violence.

“It is difficult for us to know whether these people are genuine asylum seekers or criminals on the run,” he said.—Reuters