PESHAWAR, Nov 25 What once looked like a beleaguered government under a perpetual state of siege in its citadel, Peshawar, security forces have helped the ruling ANP wrestle back the control of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and restored nearly 100 per cent state writ, a comparative study undertaken by Dawn reveals.

The comparative analysis of where Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was in 2008 in terms of militants' control and influence and where it stands now shows a remarkable reversal of what once appeared to be an almost lost cause.

Still, officials warn that the achievements are tactical and much remains to be done to consolidate the gains and pre-empt a return of Taliban to the Pakhtun heartland.

Most of the senior Taliban leaders remain at large and the government has been too slow in improving service delivery, ensuring sustained peace, undertaking reconstruction work and reviving economic activity, officials say.

A study by a western media organisation in May last year showed that the writ of the state in the province had shrunk to a mere 38 per cent of its area.

The Taliban were in control of districts like Swat and Buner and some adjoining semi-autonomous tribal regions, and were hotly contesting with the government for the control of the areas outside their writ.

The picture, according to senior government officials interviewed for this report, was so bleak that at one point the ANP-led coalition government seriously considered to relocate its provincial capital from Peshawar to the northern city of Abbottabad.

“It was very bad. (TTP chief) Baitullah had threatened the government to either quit or face a Taliban onslaught. The militants were all around. It was a nightmare,” an official said.

Peshawar was virtually under siege from three sides, Darra Adamkhel to the south, Mohmand tribal region to the north and Khyber Agency's Bara sub-district to the west. Although Nato convoys continue to come under attack and incidents of kidnapping for ransom have increased, some police officials claim that the change in the kind of crimes shows that the situation is limping back to normal.

Kidnappings top the crime chart this year with 547 cases, including 133 of kidnapping for ransom, as compared to 530 in 2009, including 158 for ransom.

“But the major achievement is that a threat of the Taliban marching on to Peshawar has been neutralised,” an official said.

Swat and Buner to the north of Peshawar had been overrun by Taliban who had also made gains in the Upper and Lower Dir and Shangla districts.

Charsadda, Mardan, Swabi and Nowshera had come under increasing pressure from militants bombing CD shops and salons.

To the south, Hangu saw an increase in sectarian violence, Kohat came under attack from neighbouring Darra Adamkhel which was under the control of a militant group affiliated with the Tehrik-i-Taliban and the situation in Lakki Marwat and Tank was also bad. Dera Ismail Khan had seen a surge in sectarian violence.

Militants had complete sway in South Waziristan, Bajaur, Mohmand, Orakzai and a major part of the Khyber region in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata).

The Sunni-dominated Sadda area in Kurram tribal region had gone the Taliban way, while militants and beleaguered Shias in its headquarters of Parachinar fought vicious battles.

North Waziristan was, and remains, virtually under the control of Taliban.

In several areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Fata, the Taliban had either established total control and introduced their own sharia laws or ran a parallel administration dispensing justice through their courts and levying taxes.

Music and barber shops were blown up, schools, particularly those for girls, were dynamited, cable operators were forced to shut down their service and people were frequently warned to avoid using musical ring tones on their cellphones.

“It was grim and grave, but the picture has changed completely,” a senior security official said.

“There are no no-go areas in the province,” Provincial Police Officer Fayaz Toru said. “The writ of the state has been established throughout the province. There is no parallel administration anywhere.”

In a sign of improving security situation, the total number of terrorist attacks in the province this year (till Nov 16) has fallen to 228 from 524 in 2008.

Officials say that the militants, after losing ground, have also changed tactics and are now relying more on roadside bombings, rocket and mortar attacks, ambushes and kidnappings for ransom.

The number of militant attacks on police stations has dropped to just one from 27 in 2008. The number of suicide bombings during the current year is 29, down from 42 last year.

However, the number of suicide bombings in Fata is nine this year, seven in 2009 and 15 in 2008.

While the situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has undergone a sea change, as one official put it, compared with the previous years when many analysts believed the province then called the NWFP was almost lost to the Taliban, some remaining pockets of militants in the adjoining tribal regions and North Waziristan continue to worry government and security officials.

Bara in Khyber Agency represents a sort of a dilemma as it has remained under a perpetual curfew for several months. Terah valley, now home to Mangal Bagh's Lashkar-i-Islam and remnants of militants fleeing the operation in Swat, Orakzai and South Waziristan, continues to pose a challenge to security forces. “The situation there is confusing. It has become a riddle that is difficult to answer,” a Fata official said.

Lower Orakzai has largely been cleared following a security operation in March, but pockets of militants remain in its central parts.

Ismailzai and Mamozai tehsils in Upper Orakzai continue to pose a formidable challenge to the security forces and remain under full control of the Taliban, officials say.

In Mohmand, the Safi and Baizi areas close to the Afghan border continue to be troublesome, where entrenched militants attack security personnel and purge 'peace committee' members in places as far as Karachi.

A similar situation persists in Bajaur where areas close to the Afghan border continue to cause problems, prompting some officials to maintain that some elements from across the border are to blame, although the conditions have improved tremendously since 2008 when the state's writ was confined to the administrative colony in the agency headquarters of Khaar.

In Kurram, Sadda has returned to government control but the road leading to Parachinar remains closed, although caravans guarded by security personnel and the commencement of flights to the agency headquarters have eased the situation.

A peace agreement with militants through the Ahmadzai Wazir tribal elders in South Waziristan's Wana region continues to hold as the military prepares to begin the repatriation of Mehsuds to their native area cleared by the Operation Rah-i-Nijaat launched in October last year.

But security remains a concern for the returning Mehsuds as well as the Fata administration.

Security forces have come under persistent attacks from the Taliban, mostly in areas bordering North Waziristan, which has become the new home of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan leadership under Hakeemullah Mehsud.

The military continues to suffer casualties in ambushes, improvised roadside bombings and rocket and mortar attacks.

Fata officials claim that the government's writ has been restored in nearly 70 per cent of the region.

But they say that the real battle is in North Waziristan. “This is our Achilles' heel,” one senior security official said.

“All said and done, all roads in militancy now lead to North Waziristan,” a government official concurred.

But military and administration officials say the only man who has the answer to this difficult question is Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.

The army chief was given a carte blanche by the civilian leadership at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and attended by Chief Minister Ameer Haider Khan Hoti on June 25, 2008, authorising him “to decide the quantum, composition and positioning of military efforts”.

“The authorisation given to Gen Kayani remains effective,” a senior military official said.The timing and scale of any operation in North Waziristan, therefore, would be decided by the army chief who was also made the overall commander of the Frontier Corps and other law-enforcement agencies for military operations.

But such a decision, another security official said, would be taken by the military command in consultation with the civilian leadership of the country. “There has to be political ownership,” the official said.