Why not mend fences with Russia?

Published April 11, 2010

PAKISTAN and the former Soviet Union followed a roller coaster model in their relations, oscillating between 'cordial' to 'hostile,' until the latter collapsed. Conscious of the need for close bilateral relations, they worked in that direction, exchanging visits at the highest level, vowing to make their relations meaningful and agreeing to cooperate in regional matters. Yet they were unable to achieve much because their respective geopolitical interests were too divergent and their existing alliances too overpowering to allow them to come any closer.

Pakistan's relationship with the Soviet Union was all along defined by the latter's relations with India, the Soviet darling at that time. Their close military and economic ties and Indian aggressive posture increased insecurity for a weaker Pakistan. This compelled Pakistan to rely on the US protection and military assistance and led it into joining the American led defence pacts — Seato and Cento, which essentially served western interests of containment of communist Russia and China.

That Pakistan got in the bargain only a false sense of security is another matter. When Pakistan invoked the Mutual Defence Treaty between Pakistan and the US seeking intervention on Pakistan's behalf after India's 1965 attack across the international border, the US State Department said it was unable to find the file of such a treaty.

Pakistan also became wary of the indirect Soviet role in strengthening the hands of India when the latter helped break up Pakistan. Unprovoked Indian invasion of East Pakistan occurred immediately after the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship was signed in August 1971, followed by massive arms sales to India on concessional terms.

The lowest point in Pak-Soviet relationship was reached when Pakistan played a key role in the mujahideen's armed campaign against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, as this was perceived to be part of Soviet strategy of pushing its way to the Indian Ocean, cutting through Balochistan. Pakistan welcomed the strategic role of the US which saw in this an opportunity to avenge its own humiliation of Vietnam. The Soviets withdrew, but for them Pakistan's 'sin' remained 'unforgivable', given its ultimate consequences.

Washington also played a role in drawing a wedge between Pakistan and the Soviet Union. In one instance, the US launch of U-2 spy plane in 1960 from the PAF facilities at Peshawar without Pakistan's knowledge and its subsequent downing by the Soviets so angered their Prime Minister Nikita Khrushchev that he threatened to bomb Badaber out of existence — a base leased to the Americans in Peshawar.

But now, some thirty years after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and some twenty years after the Soviet collapse, the world stands changed and continues to change dramatically. Today's international political and geopolitical landscape is fundamentally different from that of the second half of the 20th century. Both Russia — that rose on the ashes of the Soviet Union, and Pakistan — that struggles to overcome threats to its security, face new realities, global, regional and domestic. It is, therefore, time for both of them to overlook the past, mend fences and work together for a better future.

As the successor to Soviet Union, Russia inherited its superpower mantle and has challenged the US-led unipolar world order. Recognising this, the US and Europe are now forced to defer to the Russian position on missile defence in Eastern Europe, Georgian misadventure, American ingress into Central Asia, sanctions against Iran and other global issues. It controls energy supply to western Europe, is anxious to regain its influence in Central Asia through Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in tandem with China, both of whom want to stem the tide of American expansionism. There are indications that Russia will assume a proactive role in Afghanistan as the Americans get ready to leave. And importantly, Russia is actively seeking export markets and new allies in Central, South West and South Asia.

While Russia was picking up its pieces in the '90s, India and the US began to flirt. India had an eye on the US investment and technology, collaboration in fields such as the civilian nuclear technology and attainment of its regional power status by replacing its ageing Soviet-origin war machine with more advanced American military equipment. The US interest lay in gaining a foothold in the vast Indian market and create an ally in South Asia to pursue its encirclement of Russia and China.

The situation has changed in Pakistan too. Unlike its complete dependence on the US for security until the 1980s, it now enjoys a nuclear-based security environment that keeps the Indian belligerency in check. It is reaching self sufficiency in defence production, the most recent being the multi-role aircraft produced with Chinese collaboration. This gives Pakistan enough room to manoeuvre in the area of foreign policy, but for its poor economic performance and dependence on the US assistance that remains a limiting factor.

When players on the world stage, including India, find it necessary to redefine their priorities in keeping with their changing national interests and are realigning themselves for new security and trade arrangements, there is no reason why Pakistan should not take a fresh look at its allegiance to the US, which has neither served it well in the past nor does it hold any promise for the future. It is time for Pakistan to move towards a balanced and broad based foreign policy.

Despite major and minor differences and irritants, leaders of both countries — from Ayub to Musharraf and Kosygin to Putin, have always felt the need to improve bilateral relations. There are some achievements to show too. The Soviet mediation between India and Pakistan after 1965 war led to the signing of Tashkent Declaration. The Soviets rendered assistance in the oil & gas and power sector, supply of agricultural machinery and helicopters and establishment of the landmark project of Pakistan Steel Mills.

Pakistan was the first state to recognise Russia as the successor of the USSR. Islamabad assisted Russia in getting an observer status at the OIC and Moscow reciprocated by helping Pakistan in gaining similar status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

But despite this cooperation within the framework of multilateral organisations the full potential of bilateral relationship is yet to be realised. Islamabad has so far shied away from moving closer to Moscow for the fear of upsetting Washington. This mindset should change.

Islamabad must cut itself loose of Washington's stranglehold to gain independence in policy making, both domestic and foreign. It is in Pakistan's strategic interest to initiate politico-military outreach towards other global power centres, including Russia. A window of opportunity for Pakistan's foreign policy to move towards independence is now opening as the US has begun to lean on Pakistan for help in reaching a deal with the Taliban and implementing its exit strategy.

Russia has indicated its readiness to open doors, even for military cooperation. On the heels of a meeting between Russian and Pakistani presidents during the SCO conference last June, came General Kayani's visit to Moscow that apparently explored military cooperation. This signals a policy shift, indicating that Pakistan is not ruling out such an arrangement.

The Russian Duma has established a Group of Friendship with Pakistan — a measure that should now be reciprocated by Pakistan's parliament. The Inter-governmental Commission on Trade and Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation needs to be made functional and trade and investment potential explored. Russian help in the energy and power sector would be critically important.

Contacts between the two governments notwithstanding, people of both countries have generally remained alien to each other. A prolonged American propaganda against communism and the Soviet Union created the image of that country as an aggressive and an evil empire. This was later reinforced by the negative perception created by the Soviet misadventure in Afghanistan. This prevented Pakistanis from coming closer to the people of Soviet Union.

But now with Soviet Union no more, communism having faded out, glasnost encouraging the Russian society to open up and Russia reshaping its economic and foreign policies to meet the challenges of new millennium, Pakistanis need to see Russia in a positive light. Negative perceptions can change with increased people-to-people contacts, cultural and academic exchanges and scholarships and student exchange programmes that need to be facilitated. Pursued with diligence, a new era of friendship and cooperation is not difficult to begin.

shahidrsiddiqi@gmail.com

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